Morning Chronicle - Western leaders on their guard with China ahead of Trump return

Xi was front and centre at the meeting of the world's 20 largest economies in Rio de Janeiro, holding bilateral talks to firm up ties with everyone from Britain to France, Germany and Australia.

Beijing has positioned itself as a reliable partner ahead of the return of mercurial US President Donald Trump, a longtime critic of Washington's traditional alliances who has threatened to upend diplomatic norms once back in power.

But experts said Trump's return was unlikely to push Western nations into China's orbit, though many would balance a more pragmatic line towards Beijing against an increasingly capricious United States.

Pradeep Taneja, a senior lecturer in Asian Studies at Australia's University of Melbourne, said Xi's bilateral meetings with Western leaders were a "good sign".

"It serves (Western nations') interests to engage with China in a polite, respectful way," he told AFP.

But the optimism of the past -- fuelled by China's meteoric growth and apparent political opening -- was unlikely to make a comeback.

"The kind of warmth you saw... seven or eight years ago -- I think that is missing and that is unlikely to return," Taneja said.

The relationships now emerging were comparatively "matter-of-fact" and driven by practical self-interest, he added.

- 'Status quo player' -

China's ties with Western capitals have soured in recent years over trade policy, human rights issues, the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic, and Beijing's increasingly assertive sovereignty claims in East Asia.

At the same time, incumbent US President Joe Biden worked to restore ties with traditional partners frayed by Trump's first term.

But last month's election outcome likely signals the revival of a more isolationist and erratic American foreign policy, experts said.

Those circumstances have drawn Western nations back towards Beijing as the "status quo player", said Shahar Hameiri, a professor at Australia's University of Queensland specialising in international relations.

On the campaign trail, Trump took aim at traditional pillars of American diplomacy including support for NATO, and threatened to renew a trade war with China that hit billions of dollars in commerce during his first term.

Since his election, some European leaders have called for reducing reliance on Washington and taking firmer charge of their own affairs.

"We're seeing countries' governments trying not to put all their eggs in one basket," Hameiri told AFP.

- Stranger no more -

Chinese state media has recently portrayed their country as a beacon of true multilateralism and globalisation while criticising what Beijing views as US meddling in global affairs.

The nationalist Global Times tabloid's editorial page on Friday said Xi's Brazil trip had injected "precious certainty into the world", while another article called Washington a "humanitarian disaster creator" in Gaza.

Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore, warned that global institutions were "very likely to be weakened" by Trump.

But his second term is unlikely to yield a grand realignment of traditional Western alliances, with Hameiri pointing to US partners like Japan, Australia and the NATO defence alliance who are "dependent on US technologies when it comes to" security.

"It's not something you can just replace," Hameiri said.

Meanwhile, Beijing's sweeping overseas investments have won few "formal allies", said Taneja, the Melbourne-based expert.

Trump has picked several longtime China hawks for top jobs in his administration, though some -- like Tesla boss Elon Musk -- have deep ties to the world's second-largest economy.

Taneja said "there will always be elements of crisis under Trump".

But he believed that leaders will be better prepared for Trump this time around.

"He is no longer an unknown quantity."

M.Payne--MC-UK